Keir Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.

Significant Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Several members on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is largely due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avert any future leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several insiders also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.