A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
