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China has deployed its coast guard through the waters of the Diaoyu islands and military drones past remote Japan's territory as Beijing ramps up strains over the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its vessels conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Japan but also asserted as territory by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the islands but the latest activity come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has signalled it expects a retraction from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

China claims the island as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it terms “reunification”. It has left open the use of force. The island's administration and citizens overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An military assault by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the US and other allies including Tokyo, which has land just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Military Activity

On the island, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was likely the coast guard, operating around the territory over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones flying between the island and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, seeming to travel unusually near to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said China had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since the Japanese official made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other powers, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards the island.